Hegelmann Litauen 5–2 Šiauliai: Result & Stats

Hegelmann Litauen

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Šiauliai

7/5/2025

A Lyga · Round 19Raudondvario stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen50%

×Draw25%

Šiauliai25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hegelmann LitauenExpected goals in this matchŠiauliai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.04

Hegelmann Litauen

1.59

Šiauliai

1.04

Hegelmann Litauen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 84 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.96

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen

1.74

Šiauliai

1.13

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen

0.96

Šiauliai

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Šiauliai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw

75%

Hegelmann Litauen or Šiauliai

75%

Draw or Šiauliai

50%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

26%

Šiauliai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

80%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

47%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

21%

Šiauliai 1+ goals

65%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

28%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

67%

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.74 + Šiauliai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Šiauliai attack 1.13 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

50%

level

25%

Šiauliai scores more

25%

Hegelmann Litauen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff