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Shrewsbury vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
K. Phillips 43'
L. Leahy 33'
C. Dunkley 27'
J. Proctor 52'
D. Politic 13'
2/11/2023League OneLeague One · Round 31Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shrewsbury50%
×Draw25%
Port Vale25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.56
Port Vale
1.02

Shrewsbury creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 46 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.50
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.33
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
75%
Shrewsbury or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
50%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
26%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
79%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
46%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
21%
Port Vale 1+ goals
64%
Port Vale 2+ goals
27%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
67%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.50 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Shrewsbury defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
50%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
25%

Shrewsbury at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
C. DunkleyShrewsburyShrewsbury · D
8.3

Match Events

13'
D. Politic↳ S. Robinson
27'
C. Dunkley↳ T. Bayliss
33'
L. Leahy↳ C. Dunkley
43'
K. Phillips↳ J. Shipley
46'
W. Forrester← A. Donnelly
46'
J. Proctor← D. Butterworth
48'
Carl Winchester
52'
J. Proctor↳ G. Massey
54'
Christian Saydee
57'
Dennis Politic
58'
Tom Conlon
62'
Cheyenne Dunkley
70'
D. Worrall← D. Jones
76'
R. Street← C. Saydee
77'
R. Pyke← C. Winchester
82'
M. Odubeko← M. Benning
89'
F. Ojo← T. Conlon
90+7'
Ben Garrity
90+4'
Gavin Massey

Possession

42%Shrewsbury

Shots

10Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

45%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyPort
Overview
42%Possession58%
10Total Shots17
7Corners2
12Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots17
6On Target6
3Off Target6
1Blocked5
9Inside Box10
1Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
274Total Passes380
155Accurate Passes264
57%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

League One: Shrewsbury 3–2 Port Vale

Shrewsbury beat Port Vale 3-2 in League One on February 11, 2023.

Goals: D. Politic (13'), C. Dunkley (27'), L. Leahy (33'), K. Phillips (43'), J. Proctor (52').

Port Vale controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Montgomery Waters Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.