Shrewsbury 0–4 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

B. Walker 74'

D. Politic 57', 56', 15'

9/20/2022

League #46 · Group Stage - 5Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shrewsbury25%

×Draw23%

Port Vale52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.77

Shrewsbury

1.15

Port Vale

1.77

Port Vale creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.86

1.67

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Shrewsbury

2.00

Port Vale

1.86

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.67

Port Vale

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

48%

Shrewsbury or Port Vale

77%

Draw or Port Vale

75%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

10%

Port Vale wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

68%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

32%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Port Vale 1+ goals

83%

Port Vale 2+ goals

53%

Port Vale 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

32%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 2.00 + Port Vale defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Port Vale attack 1.86 + Shrewsbury defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

25%

level

23%

Port Vale scores more

52%

Port Vale at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

D. Politic

Port Vale · F

9.3

Match Events

15'

D. Politic↳ T. Conlon

26'

38'

46'

54'

56'

57'

D. Politic↳ T. McDermott

58'

D. Antal← C. Winchester

61'

Declan Hutchings

62'

J. Plant← T. Conlon

62'

L. Cass← L. McCarron

62'

G. Massey← D. Politic

65'

Sam Robinson

74'

B. Walker↳ D. Worrall

75'

J. Shorrock← D. Worrall

76'

K. Etienne← C. Caton

82'

T. Hernes← K. Etienne

82'

N. Owusu-Gyimah← E. Bennett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyPort

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots10

1Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots10

1On Target9

3Off Target1

1Blocked0

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

361Total Passes544

258Accurate Passes436

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides6