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Port Vale vs Shrewsbury — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
B. Dipepa 69'
T. Bloxham 53'
D. Udoh 6'
3/9/2024League OneLeague One · Round 37Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Port Vale34%
×Draw31%
Shrewsbury36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.98
Shrewsbury
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 5 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.80

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Shrewsbury
1.00

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
64%
Port Vale or Shrewsbury
69%
Draw or Shrewsbury
66%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
12%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
26%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
64%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
27%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
48%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Shrewsbury defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shrewsbury attack 0.80 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Port Vale scores more
34%
level
31%
Shrewsbury scores more
36%

Shrewsbury at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
J. WilsonPort ValePort Vale · F
7.7

Match Events

6'
D. Udoh↳ M. Benning
53'
T. Bloxham↳ C. Winchester
54'
T. Perry← J. Hinchy
57'
A. Mighten← C. Grant
59'
Taylor Perry
66'
B. Dipepa← G. Massey
66'
E. Chislett← J. Weir
69'
B. Dipepa
84'
T. Sobowale← T. Bloxham
87'
Daniel Jones
88'
Carl Winchester
90+4'
Connor Ripley
90+2'
Thomas Sang
90'
E. Bennett← C. Winchester

Possession

61%Port

Shots

16Port

Pass accuracy

56%Port

Statistics

PortShrewsbury
Overview
61%Possession39%
16Total Shots8
8Corners7
12Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots8
3On Target2
11Off Target3
2Blocked3
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
416Total Passes268
271Accurate Passes137
65%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on March 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Udoh (6'), T. Bloxham (53'), B. Dipepa (69').

Port Vale controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.