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Shrewsbury vs Charlton — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
G. Yahyai 49'
9/14/2024League OneLeague One · Round 6The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Shrewsbury34%
×Draw27%
Charlton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.19
Charlton
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 143 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.14
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
62%
Shrewsbury or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%
Charlton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
70%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
Charlton 1+ goals
72%
Charlton 2+ goals
36%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%
Charlton (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Charlton attack 1.22 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
34%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
38%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. BenningShrewsburyShrewsbury · D
8.3

Match Events

32'
Alex Mitchell
34'
Kayne Ramsay
49'
G. Yahyai
72'
D. Kanu← G. Yahyai
73'
T. Bloxham← C. Sagoe Jr
73'
M. Godden← T. Campbell
73'
A. Campbell← L. Berry
80'
J. Shipley← L. Castledine
81'
J. Marquis← C. Winchester
90'
John Marquis
90+3'
Conor Coventry

Possession

55%Shrewsbury

Shots

15Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

53%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyCharlton
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots8
7Corners7
10Fouls21
Shots
15Total Shots8
3On Target2
5Off Target4
7Blocked2
11Inside Box3
4Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
327Total Passes266
212Accurate Passes155
65%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls21
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Shrewsbury vs Charlton

Charlton beat Shrewsbury 1-0 in League One on September 14, 2024.

Goals: G. Yahyai (49').

Shrewsbury controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.