Charlton 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

T. Small 90+6'

1/25/2025

League One · Round 28The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton50%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Charlton

1.52

Shrewsbury

0.99

Charlton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 152 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

75%

Charlton or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

50%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

25%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

78%

Charlton 2+ goals

45%

Charlton 3+ goals

20%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

63%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

26%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

67%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charlton scores more

50%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

25%

Charlton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Jones

Charlton · D

8.0

Match Events

37'

Funso Ojo

58'

J. Shipley← L. Castledine

63'

C. Aneke← M. Leaburn

69'

Lloyd Jones

74'

K. Anderson← L. Berry

75'

M. Godden← G. Docherty

75'

K. Ramsay← A. Mitchell

78'

T. Perry← F. Ojo

82'

Karoy Anderson

84'

G. Nurse← A. Nsiala

90+8'

Ashley Maynard Brewer

90+6'

T. Small

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonShrewsbury

Overview

70%Possession30%

11Total Shots4

9Corners5

13Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots4

3On Target1

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

522Total Passes228

409Accurate Passes116

78%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls20

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1