Charlton 6–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Shrewsbury

M. Bonne 90+2'

M. Leaburn 70' (pen), 61'

J. Rak-Sakyi 45+2'

A. Morgan 38'

S. Fraser 27'

4/1/2023

League One · Round 39The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton50%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Charlton

1.52

Shrewsbury

0.99

Charlton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 152 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

75%

Charlton or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

50%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

25%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

78%

Charlton 2+ goals

45%

Charlton 3+ goals

20%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

63%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

26%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

67%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charlton scores more

50%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

25%

Charlton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Rak-Sakyi

Charlton · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

S. Sessegnon← S. Clare

26'

27'

31'

36'

38'

A. Morgan↳ J. Rak-Sakyi

39'

Christian Saydee

45+2'

J. Rak-Sakyi↳ A. Morgan

61'

M. Leaburn↳ T. Thomas

63'

Z. Mitchell← M. Hector

63'

A. Henry← G. Dobson

66'

R. Bowman← C. Saydee

66'

T. Bloxham← R. Street

69'

Jordan Shipley

69'

Tom Flanagan

69'

Tom Flanagan

70'

M. LeaburnPenalty

72'

J. Payne← T. Thomas

72'

M. Bonne← S. Fraser

77'

E. Bennett← M. Pennington

88'

Carl Winchester

90+2'

M. Bonne↳ A. Henry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonShrewsbury

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots11

5Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots11

11On Target1

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box4

9Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

426Total Passes348

349Accurate Passes260

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1