Shrewsbury 0–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Rak-Sakyi 69'

10/22/2022

League One · Round 16Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Shrewsbury34%

×Draw27%

Charlton38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.27

Shrewsbury

1.19

Charlton

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 143 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.32

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

62%

Shrewsbury or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

70%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

12%

Charlton 1+ goals

72%

Charlton 2+ goals

36%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Charlton (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Charlton attack 1.22 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

38%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. O'Connell

Charlton · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

Ryan Inniss

60'

A. O'Brien← R. Pyke

62'

J. Payne← T. Campbell

63'

Christian Saydee

69'

J. Rak-Sakyi↳ J. Payne

77'

M. Pennington← T. Moore

77'

T. Bloxham← T. Bayliss

78'

R. Street← E. Bennett

80'

C. Aneke← J. Stockley

80'

S. Clare← M. Egbo

86'

Scott Fraser

88'

A. Morgan← J. Rak-Sakyi

88'

T. Thomas← C. Kirk

90+2'

Eoghan O'Connell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyCharlton

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots17

9Corners4

15Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target4

3Off Target9

4Blocked4

5Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

320Total Passes451

223Accurate Passes366

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2