Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kyoto Sanga

A. Suzuki 29'

H. Sugai 90'

10/19/2025

J1 League · Round 34Lemon Gas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shonan Bellmare36%

×Draw26%

Kyoto Sanga39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.39

Shonan Bellmare

1.32

Kyoto Sanga

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 46 away

1.36

creates per match

1.26

1.52

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.36

Kyoto Sanga

1.26

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.52

Kyoto Sanga

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

61%

Shonan Bellmare or Kyoto Sanga

74%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

64%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

16%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

73%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

38%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

15%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

75%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

40%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

48%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.36 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.26 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

36%

level

26%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

39%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

K. Sanada

Shonan Bellmare

8.3

Match Events

-5'

29'

45'

46'

46'

R. Nakano← T. Matsuda

64'

M. Okugawa← Marco Tulio

64'

S. Nagasawa← T. Hirato

71'

M. Ikeda← K. Onose

75'

F. Yamada← S. Fukuda

79'

Yutaro Oda

82'

K. Watanabe← A. Suzuki

82'

R. Nitta← Y. Oda

90+6'

Masaki Ikeda

90+2'

João Pedro

90+1'

Kyo SatoCard upgrade

90+4'

T. Hiraoka← H. Okuno

90'

H. Sugai↳ F. Yamada

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShonanKyoto

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots18

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.59

3Corners9

10Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked5

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

218Total Passes345

124Accurate Passes231

57%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls18

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1