Kyoto Sanga 2–0 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shonan Bellmare

4/12/2025

J1 League · Round 10Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kyoto Sanga43%

×Draw26%

Shonan Bellmare31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.22

Kyoto Sanga

1.48

Shonan Bellmare

1.22

Kyoto Sanga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 43 away

1.39

creates per match

1.05

1.39

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.39

Shonan Bellmare

1.05

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.39

Shonan Bellmare

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

69%

Kyoto Sanga or Shonan Bellmare

74%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

57%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

21%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

77%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

43%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

19%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

70%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

34%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

58%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.39 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.05 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

43%

level

26%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

31%

Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff