Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 43+ matches
Kyoto Sanga43%
Shonan Bellmare31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kyoto Sanga creates 21% more chances
Season form · 46 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kyoto Sanga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches
Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kyoto Sanga attack 1.39 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48
Shonan Bellmare attack 1.05 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Kashima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United ChibaShonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Kyoto Sanga host Shonan Bellmare on Saturday, 21 October 2023 at 06:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2024/2025 season.
J1 League: Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on October 21, 2023.
Goals: Y. Ohashi (39' pen).
Kyoto Sanga controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 7.
The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.