Shonan Bellmare 5–2 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Albirex Niigata

K. Okuno 72'

A. Suzuki 70', 35'

K. Onose 52'

T. Hiraoka 38'

Moraes 90'

M. Hasegawa 85' (pen)

11/8/2025

J1 League · Round 36Lemon Gas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Shonan Bellmare34%

×Draw27%

Albirex Niigata38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.27

Shonan Bellmare

1.19

Albirex Niigata

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

1.15

creates per match

1.07

1.47

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.15

Albirex Niigata

1.07

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.47

Albirex Niigata

1.24

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.11scores more

Albirex Niigata-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

62%

Shonan Bellmare or Albirex Niigata

73%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

66%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

14%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

70%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

33%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

12%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

47%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.47 · 23 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.15 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Albirex Niigata attack 1.07 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

34%

level

27%

Albirex Niigata scores more

38%

Albirex Niigata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Suzuki

Shonan Bellmare · F

8.9

Match Events

35'

38'

43'

48'

52'

57'

F. Hayakawa← J. Geria

57'

T. Arai← Y. Takagi

57'

Y. Wakatsuki← J. Okumura

63'

M. Ikeda← K. Onose

64'

Luiz Phellype← R. Nitta

70'

72'

72'

72'

75'

77'

M. Ohara← K. Taniguchi

79'

T. Fujii← S. Ota

85'

M. HasegawaPenalty

90'

Moraes↳ S. Fujiwara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShonanAlbirex

Overview

34%Possession66%

18Total Shots12

2.32Expected Goals (xG)1.38

4Corners1

11Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots12

8On Target5

7Off Target3

3Blocked4

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

334Total Passes666

267Accurate Passes587

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

J1 League: Shonan Bellmare 5–2 Albirex Niigata

Shonan Bellmare beat Albirex Niigata 5-2 in J1 League on November 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Suzuki (35', 70'), T. Hiraoka (38'), K. Onose (52'), K. Okuno (72'), M. Hasegawa (85' pen), Moraes (90').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Lemon Gas Stadium in Hiratsuka.

Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Shonan Bellmare 5–2 Albirex Niigata