Albirex Niigata 3–1 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shonan Bellmare

K. Taniguchi 75'

M. Nagakura 32'

Y. Ono 8'

H. Abe 90+3'

9/14/2024

J1 League · Round 30Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Albirex Niigata40%

×Draw26%

Shonan Bellmare34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Albirex Niigata

1.38

Shonan Bellmare

1.25

Albirex Niigata creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.26

Shonan Bellmare

1.15

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.36

Shonan Bellmare

1.50

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less

Shonan Bellmare-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

66%

Albirex Niigata or Shonan Bellmare

74%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

60%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

19%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

75%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

40%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

16%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

71%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

36%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

54%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.15 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

40%

level

26%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

34%

Albirex Niigata at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Abe

Shonan Bellmare · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

Y. Ono

26'

Satoshi Tanaka

32'

M. Nagakura↳ K. Hashimoto

44'

T. Hata← M. Ikeda

46'

K. Ohno← Kim Min-Tae

46'

T. Hiraoka← A. Barada

54'

Kazunari Ono

71'

T. Deng← K. Hashimoto

71'

Y. Takagi← Y. Ono

75'

K. Taniguchi↳ H. Inamura

80'

Lukian

81'

T. Hasegawa← S. Ota

81'

M. Hasegawa← K. Taniguchi

81'

H. Abe← N. Takahashi

82'

R. Nemoto← A. Suzuki

88'

K. Suzuki← M. Nagakura

90+3'

H. Abe↳ T. Hata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexShonan

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots10

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.59

4Corners6

8Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target2

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

418Total Passes518

354Accurate Passes440

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

J1 League: Albirex Niigata 3–1 Shonan Bellmare

Albirex Niigata beat Shonan Bellmare 3-1 in J1 League on September 14, 2024.

Goals: Y. Ono (8'), M. Nagakura (32'), K. Taniguchi (75'), H. Abe (90+3').

Shonan Bellmare controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.

Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Albirex Niigata 3–1 Shonan Bellmare