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Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
8/12/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Albirex Niigata40%
×Draw26%
Shonan Bellmare34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.38
Shonan Bellmare
1.25

Albirex Niigata creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.26
Shonan Bellmare
1.15

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.36
Shonan Bellmare
1.50

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less
Shonan Bellmare-0.38scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
66%
Albirex Niigata or Shonan Bellmare
74%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
60%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
19%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
75%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
40%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
16%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
71%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
36%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
54%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.15 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
40%
level
26%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
34%

Albirex Niigata at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare

Albirex Niigata and Shonan Bellmare drew 2-2 in J1 League on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.