Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Preview

15:00

Volga Ulyanovsk

4/3/2027

First League · Round 25Stadion Shinnik

Big match

41%

Shinnik Yaroslavl

model favours

41%29%31%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl41%

×Draw29%

Volga Ulyanovsk31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.20

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

1.07

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.96

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.04

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

69%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

59%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

17%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

70%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

34%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

12%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

63%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

26%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

57%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.07 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.96 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

41%

level

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Yaroslavl

DDDDW

Ulyanovsk

LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff