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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/24/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Shinnik
37%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
33%30%37%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl33%
×Draw30%
Torpedo Moskva37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.01
Torpedo Moskva
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Torpedo Moskva
1.18

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
0.95

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Torpedo Moskva
70%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
67%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
12%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
66%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
47%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.07 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.18 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
33%
level
30%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
37%

Torpedo Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Yaroslavl
DDDDW
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Torpedo Moskva (First League)

First League returns with Shinnik Yaroslavl hosting Torpedo Moskva. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shinnik Yaroslavl host Torpedo Moskva at Stadion Shinnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.