Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Torpedo Moskva

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

N. Dorofeev 90+2'

8/2/2020

First League · Round 1Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl35%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.14

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.10

Torpedo Moskva

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 101 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.15

Torpedo Moskva

1.21

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

65%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

14%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

67%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

49%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.15 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.21 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

35%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

37%

Torpedo Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

P. Evseev

41'

E. Steshin

52'

E. Nasedkin

57'

N. Dorofeev← E. Nasedkin

58'

K. Kertanov← I. Lebedenko

65'

A. Eliseev← R. Magal

68'

A. Gongapshev← N. Matskharashvili

73'

A. Shchadin← I. Oleynikov

77'

F. Dvoretskov← A. Gordyushenko

89'

E. Proshkin← V. Adaev

90'

E. Strelov← D. Kutin

90'

E. Nizamutdinov← A. Ektov

90'

S. Shustikov← I. Berkovskiy

90+2'

N. Dorofeev

Shinnik

Torpedo

51

Botnar

44

Samsonov

16

Shorkin

28

▼

Magal

24

Lyakh

52

Netfullin

72

▼

Gordyushe

9

▼

Adaev

8

▼

Berkovski

10

▼

Lebedenko

33

Sergeev

16

Yashin

64

▼

4

8

17

5

14

▼

Nasedkin

7

▼

Oleynikov

20

▼

Ektov

10

▼

Matskhara

22

Samodin

Manager: A. Pobegalov

57'▲N. Dorofeev←▼E. Nasedkin

68'▲A. Gongapshev←▼N. Matskharashvili

73'▲A. Shchadin←▼I. Oleynikov

90'▲E. Strelov←▼D. Kutin

90'▲E. Nizamutdinov←▼A. Ektov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

89Dorofeev77Gongapshev27Shchadin3Strelov9Nizamutdinov11Pukhov13Matyusha21Golub43Polyakov44Tananeev72Maslennikov

Manager: S. Ignashevich

58'▲K. Kertanov←▼I. Lebedenko

65'▲A. Eliseev←▼R. Magal

77'▲F. Dvoretskov←▼A. Gordyushenko

89'▲E. Proshkin←▼V. Adaev

90'▲S. Shustikov←▼I. Berkovskiy

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

11Kertanov4Eliseev17Dvoretskov49Proshkin6Shustikov15Orekhov47Konyukhov77Sundukov99Evdokimov