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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
10/28/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%
×Draw28%
PFC Sochi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.10
PFC Sochi
1.26

PFC Sochi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 38 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
60%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or PFC Sochi
72%
Draw or PFC Sochi
68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
13%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
67%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
10%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
72%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
36%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
45%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
32%
level
28%
PFC Sochi scores more
40%

PFC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 PFC Sochi

Shinnik Yaroslavl and PFC Sochi drew 1-1 in First League on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl').