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FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
P. Meleshin 84' (pen)
V. Aleynikov 41'
B. Zagrè 31'
3/23/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi54%
×Draw24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.66
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.93

FC Sochi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 122 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.47

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
79%
FC Sochi or Shinnik Yaroslavl
76%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
46%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
49%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
72%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Sochi scores more
54%
level
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
21%

FC Sochi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Zakhar Fedorov
30'
V. Pisarskiy← M. Kramarič
31'
B. Zagrè
41'
V. Aleynikov
46'
K. Zaika← L. Stojsavljević
54'
Ruslan Magal
57'
S. Terekhov← R. Magal
57'
R. Bart← M. Kaynov
74'
N. Burmistrov← R. Pasevich
74'
N. Miroshnichenko← D. Sukhomlinov
80'
Nikita Burmistrov
80'
Ruslan Kul
84'
P. MeleshinPenalty
89'
V. Zinkov← R. Kul
89'
P. Shakuro← D. Samoylov
90+6'
A. Ukomskiy← Z. Fedorov

Statistics

FCShinnik
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: FC Sochi 1–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat FC Sochi 2-1 in First League on March 23, 2025.

Goals: B. Zagrè (31'), V. Aleynikov (41'), P. Meleshin (84' pen).

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.