Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–2 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Sochi

V. Karpov 47'

I. Porokhov 14'

R. Ezhov 60'

A. Osipov 56'

7/12/2026

First League · Round 1Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl39%

×Draw29%

FC Sochi32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.05

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.19

FC Sochi

1.05

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.05

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.05

FC Sochi

1.16

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.95

FC Sochi

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

68%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or FC Sochi

71%

Draw or FC Sochi

61%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

17%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

70%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

33%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

12%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

65%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

28%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

55%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.05 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

39%

level

29%

FC Sochi scores more

32%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

47'

56'

60'

61'

D. Martovoy← D. Samoylov

61'

A. Antonov← A. Gongapshev

69'

D. Pushkarev← I. Porokhov

69'

I. Azyavin← D. Mironov

73'

I. Kalinin← R. Magal

73'

P. Meleshin← Z. Fedorov

73'

R. Pasevich← R. Ezhov

77'

79'

80'

81'

89'

89'

90+3'

Shinnik3-5-2

FC3-4-3

8

▼

Ignatov

9

▼

Fedorov

29

⚽

▼

Ezhov

17

Makarchuk

6

▼

Kuzmin

5

⚽

Osipov

28

▼

27

4

3

35

51

23

62

⚽

Karpov

2

Kosogorov

15

▼

Samoilov

64

▼

Lanin

50

Golubev

27

Chernyi

10

▼

Gongapshe

88

▼

Mironov

11

⚽

▼

Porokhov

Manager: Artem Buloychik

61'▲D. Martovoy←▼D. Samoylov

61'▲A. Antonov←▼A. Gongapshev

69'▲D. Pushkarev←▼I. Porokhov

69'▲I. Azyavin←▼D. Mironov

77'▲N. Kotin←▼O. Lanin

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

20Martovoy7Antonov24Azyavin15Pushkarev53Kotin95Vambolt26Karaev33Lavrenkov54ShmakovValiakhmetov

Manager: Igor Osinkin

73'▲I. Kalinin←▼R. Magal

73'▲P. Meleshin←▼Z. Fedorov

73'▲R. Pasevich←▼R. Ezhov

81'▲R. Bart←▼M. Ignatov

90+3'▲M. Kaynov←▼M. Kuzmin

FC Sochi substitutes

85Silev13Kalinin97Pasevich11Meleshin37Chirkov18Kaynov66Metsiev59Bart

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi drew 2-2 in First League on July 12, 2026.

Goals: I. Porokhov (14'), V. Karpov (47'), A. Osipov (56'), R. Ezhov (60').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi