PFC Sochi 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

5/19/2019

First League · Round 37Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PFC Sochi54%

×Draw24%

Shinnik Yaroslavl21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.93

PFC Sochi

1.66

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.93

PFC Sochi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 122 away

1.84

creates per match

0.99

0.86

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.84

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

PFC Sochi

0.86

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

79%

PFC Sochi or Shinnik Yaroslavl

76%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

46%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

81%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

49%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

23%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

61%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

24%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

72%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

54%

level

24%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

21%

PFC Sochi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Lagator

11'

D. Magadiev

39'

V. Kamilov

44'

N. Drozdov← N. Drozdov

46'

I. Geloyan← I. Geloyan

48'

N. Pokidyshev

54'

A. Bakhtiyarov← A. Bakhtiyarov

63'

N. Obolskiy← N. Obolskiy

65'

N. Burmistrov← N. Burmistrov

70'

V. Pochivalin← V. Pochivalin

71'

M. Shaymordanov← M. Shaymordanov

81'

V. Pochivalin

90'

N. Obolskiy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff