Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leningradets

I. Gruznov 48'

V. Zinkov 13'

5/28/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl47%

×Draw26%

Leningradets26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.46

Leningradets

1.01

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

2.13

creates per match

1.57

0.44

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

2.13

Leningradets

1.57

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.44

Leningradets

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

74%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Leningradets

74%

Draw or Leningradets

53%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

23%

Leningradets wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

77%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

43%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

18%

Leningradets 1+ goals

64%

Leningradets 2+ goals

27%

Leningradets 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

64%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 2.13 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leningradets attack 1.57 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

47%

level

26%

Leningradets scores more

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Sirotov

13'

V. Zinkov

27'

E. Steshin

46'

I. Leontjev← M. Kanaev

48'

I. Gruznov

53'

I. Dmitriev← A. Anisimov

62'

I. Azyavin← A. Gongapshev

62'

I. Belous← I. Gruznov

63'

A. Semenov

69'

S. Kostin

71'

M. Votinov← R. Umarov

71'

N. Polyakov← R. Kazakov

78'

N. Rozmanov← V. Sirotov

78'

N. Khlusov← R. Vorobjev

84'

D. Shilov← D. Samoylov

90+1'

S. Belyaev← M. Filippov

Shinnik

Leningradets

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Gruznov

▼

Gongapshe

Manager: V. Evseev

46'▲I. Leontjev←▼M. Kanaev

62'▲I. Azyavin←▼A. Gongapshev

62'▲I. Belous←▼I. Gruznov

84'▲D. Shilov←▼D. Samoylov

90+1'▲S. Belyaev←▼M. Filippov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

LeontjevAzyavinBelousShilovBelyaev

Manager: S. Kirjakov

53'▲I. Dmitriev←▼A. Anisimov

71'▲M. Votinov←▼R. Umarov

71'▲N. Polyakov←▼R. Kazakov

78'▲N. Rozmanov←▼V. Sirotov

78'▲N. Khlusov←▼R. Vorobjev

Leningradets substitutes

DmitrievVotinovPolyakovRozmanovKhlusov