Leningradets 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Leningradets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4/30/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Kirovets Sankt-Peterburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leningradets43%

×Draw26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.17

Leningradets

1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.17

Leningradets creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

2.24

creates per match

1.56

0.78

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Leningradets

2.24

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.56

allows per match

Leningradets

0.78

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

69%

Leningradets or Shinnik Yaroslavl

74%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

57%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

21%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

76%

Leningradets 2+ goals

42%

Leningradets 3+ goals

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

69%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

33%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

58%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.56 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leningradets scores more

43%

level

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

31%

Leningradets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff