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Leningradets vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
I. Rubtsov 67'
8/12/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Petrovskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leningradets32%
×Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.26

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 122 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.71
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Leningradets
1.53
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.47

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
60%
Leningradets or Shinnik Yaroslavl
72%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
68%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
66%
Leningradets 2+ goals
30%
Leningradets 3+ goals
10%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
72%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
36%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
44%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.71 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Leningradets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leningradets scores more
32%
level
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
40%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
S. Iljin← N. Rozmanov
54'
V. Shepelev← V. Kaptilov
54'
A. Yakovlev← E. Sukhanov
56'
D. Malykhin← M. Gashchenkov
63'
V. Sirotov← V. Zhironkin
67'
I. Rubtsov
75'
P. Kuznetsov← D. Samoylov
77'
M. Markin← M. Bachinskiy
85'
E. Nizamutdinov← I. Rubtsov
86'
Alexander Dovbnya

Statistics

LeningradetsShinnik
Overview
8Corners3
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2

First League: Leningradets 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Leningradets 1-0 in First League on August 12, 2023.

Goals: I. Rubtsov (67').

The match was played at Stadion Petrovskiy in St. Petersburg.