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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Irtysh Omsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
2/25/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%
×Draw23%
Irtysh Omsk45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.43
Irtysh Omsk
1.75

Irtysh Omsk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.36
Irtysh Omsk
2.33

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.18
Irtysh Omsk
1.50

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
55%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Irtysh Omsk
77%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
14%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
76%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
42%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
17%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
83%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
52%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
41%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.36 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Irtysh Omsk attack 2.33 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
32%
level
23%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
45%

Irtysh Omsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–2 Irtysh Omsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.