Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–3 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

0 – 3

Irtysh Omsk

10/4/2020

First League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl44%

×Draw28%

Irtysh Omsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.97

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.28

Irtysh Omsk

0.97

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 32% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 21 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.07

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.14

Irtysh Omsk

0.86

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Irtysh Omsk

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

72%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Irtysh Omsk

72%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

56%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

20%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

72%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

37%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

14%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

62%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

25%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

61%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.14 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

44%

level

28%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff