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Irtysh Omsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3/28/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk30%
×Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 121 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.57
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.52
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
59%
Irtysh Omsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl
72%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
70%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
11%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
64%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
28%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
71%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
36%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
42%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.50 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
30%
level
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
41%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Irtysh Omsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 0-0 in First League on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.