Shimizu S-pulse 2–0 Oita Trinita: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oita Trinita

3/16/2024

J2 League · Round 4IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse56%

×Draw24%

Oita Trinita20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchOita Trinita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.91

Shimizu S-pulse

1.70

Oita Trinita

0.91

Shimizu S-pulse creates 87% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 103 away

2.02

creates per match

1.18

0.64

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

2.02

Oita Trinita

1.18

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

0.64

Oita Trinita

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Oita Trinita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

80%

Shimizu S-pulse or Oita Trinita

76%

Draw or Oita Trinita

44%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

31%

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

82%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

51%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

24%

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

60%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

23%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

74%

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Oita Trinita defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

56%

level

24%

Oita Trinita scores more

20%

Shimizu S-pulse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff