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Shimizu S-pulse vs Oita Trinita — J1 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
7/4/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw26%
Oita Trinita35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.42
Oita Trinita
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 53 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.34
Oita Trinita
1.00

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.66
Oita Trinita
1.49

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
65%
Shimizu S-pulse or Oita Trinita
74%
Draw or Oita Trinita
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
18%
Oita Trinita wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
76%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
41%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
17%
Oita Trinita 1+ goals
74%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
38%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
53%
Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.34 + Oita Trinita defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oita Trinita attack 1.00 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
26%
Oita Trinita scores more
35%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Oita Trinita

Shimizu S-pulse beat Oita Trinita 1-0 in J1 League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.