Oita Trinita 0–2 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Oita Trinita

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shimizu S-pulse

7/14/2024

J2 League · Round 24Resonac Dome Oita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Oita Trinita34%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

Oita Trinita

1.25

Shimizu S-pulse

1.38

Shimizu S-pulse creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 43 away

1.33

creates per match

1.63

1.12

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Oita Trinita

1.33

Shimizu S-pulse

1.63

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.12

Shimizu S-pulse

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

60%

Oita Trinita or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

66%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

15%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

71%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

36%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

13%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

75%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

40%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

46%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.12 · 103 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Oita Trinita defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

34%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

40%

Shimizu S-pulse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff