Shimizu S-pulse vs Nagoya Grampus

Shimizu S-pulse

Preview

10:00

Nagoya Grampus

4/17/2027

J1 League · Round 30IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Big match

39%

Shimizu S-pulse

model favours

39%25%36%

92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%

×Draw25%

Nagoya Grampus36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.39

Shimizu S-pulse

1.46

Nagoya Grampus

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

1.21

1.56

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.13

Nagoya Grampus

1.21

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.56

Nagoya Grampus

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

64%

Shimizu S-pulse or Nagoya Grampus

75%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

19%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

77%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

43%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

18%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

75%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

40%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

52%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.13 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.21 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

39%

level

25%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

36%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Shimizu S-pulse

Balanced

Nagoya Grampus

Balanced

50%Possession50%

79%Pass accuracy77%

12.8Shots12.8

1.29xGBiggest gap1.64

Shimizu S-pulseNagoya Grampus

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0

Shimizu S-pulse

2

Draws

3

Nagoya Grampus

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%

0–20–11–10–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

S-pulse

WLDLL

Grampus

DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff