Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

Y. Kimura 58'

2/8/2026

J1 League · Round 1Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Nagoya Grampus

1.48

Shimizu S-pulse

1.09

Nagoya Grampus creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.48

creates per match

0.98

1.21

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.48

Shimizu S-pulse

0.98

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.21

Shimizu S-pulse

1.48

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.15scores less

Shimizu S-pulse-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

72%

Nagoya Grampus or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

23%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

77%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

43%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

19%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

66%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

30%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

62%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.21 · 9 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.48 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.98 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

46%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

28%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Kimura

Nagoya Grampus · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

Teruki Hara

41'

Marcus Vinicius

45+2'

H. Koda← R. Izumi

58'

Y. Kimura↳ K. Nakayama

61'

Yudai KimuraGoal confirmed

61'

K. Kozuka← Z. Uno

64'

Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi

68'

K. Kitazume← H. Hidaka

68'

T. Takahashi← K. Matsuzaki

71'

Y. Nogami← T. Hara

84'

K. Chiba← K. Kitagawa

85'

K. Mikuni← K. Nakayama

85'

K. Shiihashi← Marcus Vinicius

85'

K. Nagai← Y. Kimura

90+7'

Hidemasa Koda

90+8'

Kazuki Kozuka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaShimizu

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots6

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.72

5Corners5

11Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots6

3On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

428Total Passes390

328Accurate Passes295

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse

Nagoya Grampus beat Shimizu S-pulse 1-0 in J1 League on February 8, 2026.

Goals: Y. Kimura (58').

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse