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Shimizu S-pulse vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
S. Sugiura 88'
Y. Kimura 45'
4/25/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 12IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw25%
Nagoya Grampus36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.47
Nagoya Grampus
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
Nagoya Grampus
1.21

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
Nagoya Grampus
1.79

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
64%
Shimizu S-pulse or Nagoya Grampus
75%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
19%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
77%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
43%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
18%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
75%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
41%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
52%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.21 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
25%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
36%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Y. KimuraNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus · F
8.2

Match Events

45'
Y. Kimura↳ T. Hara
46'
K. Kozuka← A. Stephens
46'
Y. Yoshida← R. Ohata
57'
H. Koda← R. Izumi
57'
S. Sugiura← Y. Yamagishi
63'
K. Chiba← Y. Shimamoto
75'
M. Ono← T. Morishima
75'
K. Mikuni← Y. Asano
76'
D. Yuji← K. Kitazume
83'
M. Yumiba← Z. Uno
83'
Y. Nogami← T. Hara
88'
S. Sugiura

Possession

51%Shimizu

Shots

6Shimizu

Pass accuracy

50%Shimizu

Statistics

ShimizuNagoya
Overview
51%Possession49%
6Total Shots9
0.24Expected Goals (xG)2.09
1Corners3
14Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target5
3Off Target4
2Blocked0
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
492Total Passes464
405Accurate Passes378
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls8
4Offsides2

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 0–2 Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-0 in J1 League on April 25, 2026.

Goals: Y. Kimura (45'), S. Sugiura (88').

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.