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Shimizu S-pulse vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
K. Shiihashi 50'
R. Izumi 48'
S. Inagaki 36'
5/3/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14New National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw25%
Nagoya Grampus36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.46
Nagoya Grampus
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.13
Nagoya Grampus
1.21

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.56
Nagoya Grampus
1.79

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
64%
Shimizu S-pulse or Nagoya Grampus
75%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
19%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
77%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
43%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
18%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
75%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
40%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
52%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.13 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.21 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
25%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
36%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
K. ShiihashiNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus · M
8.0

Match Events

33'
Yota Sato
36'
S. Inagaki↳ T. Uchida
46'
K. Nakayama← S. Tokumoto
46'
Y. Yamagishi← K. Nagai
48'
R. Izumi
50'
K. Shiihashi↳ Y. Yamagishi
55'
S. Yajima← M. Yumiba
61'
T. Morishima← R. Izumi
62'
Koya Kitagawa
63'
Y. Shimamoto← T. Inui
63'
M. Nishihara← Capixaba
63'
A. Ahmedov← K. Kitagawa
72'
S. Takagi← R. Yamahara
72'
Y. Asano← Mateus
84'
D. Miya← Y. Sato

Possession

53%Shimizu

Shots

8Shimizu

Pass accuracy

51%Shimizu

Statistics

ShimizuNagoya
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots11
0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.26
6Corners3
17Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots11
0On Target4
3Off Target4
5Blocked3
4Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
428Total Passes381
340Accurate Passes294
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 0–3 Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-0 in J1 League on May 3, 2025.

Goals: S. Inagaki (36'), R. Izumi (48'), K. Shiihashi (50').

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at New National Stadium in Tokyo.