Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
10:00
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
9/2/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 5IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
45%
FC Tokyo
model favours
29%26%45%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse29%
×Draw26%
FC Tokyo45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.13
FC Tokyo
1.46

FC Tokyo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
FC Tokyo
1.32

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
FC Tokyo
1.11

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
55%
Shimizu S-pulse or FC Tokyo
74%
Draw or FC Tokyo
71%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
12%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
68%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
31%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
11%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
77%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
43%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
40%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + FC Tokyo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Tokyo attack 1.32 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
29%
level
26%
FC Tokyo scores more
45%

FC Tokyo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Tokyo win just 30% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
FC Tokyo
Attack-heavy
51%Possession49%
79%Pass accuracy80%
12.3Shots15.3
1.24xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseFC Tokyo

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
2
FC Tokyo
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 20%
1–12–02–00–30–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Tokyo
LDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shimizu S-pulse host FC Tokyo

September 2, 2026: Shimizu S-pulse take on FC Tokyo in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shimizu S-pulse host FC Tokyo at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.