FC Tokyo 0–2 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

FC Tokyo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

Thiago Santana 85'

Carlinhos Júnior 57'

8/7/2022

J1 League · Round 24Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Tokyo56%

×Draw23%

Shimizu S-pulse21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TokyoExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

FC Tokyo

1.84

Shimizu S-pulse

1.02

FC Tokyo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

2.17

creates per match

1.03

1.02

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FC Tokyo

2.17

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

FC Tokyo

1.02

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.17scores less

Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw

79%

FC Tokyo or Shimizu S-pulse

77%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

44%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

32%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

84%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

55%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

28%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

64%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

27%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

73%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.17 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + FC Tokyo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Tokyo scores more

56%

level

23%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

21%

FC Tokyo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

R. Yamahara

Shimizu S-pulse · D

8.0

Match Events

17'

Carlinhos Junior

45+2'

Keigo Higashi

57'

Carlinhos Júnior↳ T. Hara

60'

Leandro← H. Mita

60'

K. Tsukagawa← K. Higashi

63'

Ronaldo← R. Shirasaki

63'

K. Kitagawa← Carlinhos Júnior

74'

B. Kololli← Yago Pikachu

74'

Y. Goto← T. Inui

77'

Luiz Phellype← Adaílton

77'

K. Konno← S. Abe

85'

E. Katayama← T. Hara

85'

Thiago Santana↳ R. Yamahara

86'

J. Suzuki← K. Bangnagande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCShimizu

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots12

4Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target4

6Off Target6

1Blocked2

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

525Total Passes416

454Accurate Passes352

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1