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FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
4/29/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Tokyo56%
×Draw23%
Shimizu S-pulse21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.84
Shimizu S-pulse
1.02

FC Tokyo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
2.17
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.02
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.17scores less
Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
79%
FC Tokyo or Shimizu S-pulse
77%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
44%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
32%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
84%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
55%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
28%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
64%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
27%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
73%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.17 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + FC Tokyo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
56%
level
23%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
21%

FC Tokyo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse

Shimizu S-pulse beat FC Tokyo 2-0 in J1 League on April 29, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.