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Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
T. Takahashi 34'
K. Sato 76'
10/4/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse29%
×Draw26%
FC Tokyo45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.13
FC Tokyo
1.46

FC Tokyo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
FC Tokyo
1.32

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
FC Tokyo
1.11

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
55%
Shimizu S-pulse or FC Tokyo
74%
Draw or FC Tokyo
71%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
12%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
68%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
31%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
11%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
77%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
43%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
40%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + FC Tokyo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Tokyo attack 1.32 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
29%
level
26%
FC Tokyo scores more
45%

FC Tokyo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
Kim Min-TaeShimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse · D
7.7

Match Events

34'
T. Takahashi↳ Y. Yoshida
60'
Sodai Hasukawa
61'
K. Tawaratsumida← Marcos Guilherme
61'
L. Nozawa← K. Endo
67'
K. Matsuzaki← K. Kozuka
67'
Z. Uno← M. Yumiba
73'
K. Kitagawa← T. Takahashi
76'
K. Sato↳ K. Tawaratsumida
83'
S. Takagi← Y. Yoshida
83'
S. Yajima← T. Inui
87'
T. Oka← M. Morishige
87'
K. Yamashita← K. Sato

Possession

64%Shimizu

Shots

10Shimizu

Pass accuracy

54%Shimizu

Statistics

ShimizuFC
Overview
64%Possession36%
10Total Shots15
1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.42
2Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots15
1On Target4
9Off Target6
0Blocked5
6Inside Box10
4Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
631Total Passes357
535Accurate Passes258
85%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 FC Tokyo

Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: T. Takahashi (34'), K. Sato (76').

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.