Shimizu S-pulse 2–0 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Albirex Niigata

K. Matsuzaki 62'

Capixaba 45'

2/22/2025

J1 League · Round 2IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse42%

×Draw26%

Albirex Niigata32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Shimizu S-pulse

1.42

Albirex Niigata

1.21

Shimizu S-pulse creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.56

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.13

Albirex Niigata

0.86

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.56

Albirex Niigata

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

68%

Shimizu S-pulse or Albirex Niigata

74%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

58%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

20%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

76%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

41%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

17%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

70%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

34%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

57%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.13 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Albirex Niigata attack 0.86 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

42%

level

26%

Albirex Niigata scores more

32%

Shimizu S-pulse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

S. Takagi

Shimizu S-pulse · D

8.5

Match Events

26'

Hiroki Akiyama

26'

Hiroki AkiyamaCard upgrade

33'

Kento Hashimoto

45'

Capixaba

46'

K. Matsuzaki← H. Nakahara

46'

T. Arai← J. Okumura

62'

K. Matsuzaki↳ Z. Uno

63'

K. Miyamoto← Z. Uno

66'

Miguel← S. Ota

70'

K. Kozuka← T. Inui

70'

Douglas Tanque← Capixaba

77'

J. Geria← M. Hasegawa

77'

K. Yamura← K. Taniguchi

78'

Miguel

79'

A. Ahmedov← K. Kitagawa

86'

Y. Horigome← K. Hashimoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuAlbirex

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots6

1.71Expected Goals (xG)0.76

7Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots6

4On Target5

6Off Target1

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

586Total Passes391

503Accurate Passes296

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0