Shimizu S-pulse 2–3 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Albirex Niigata

K. Kitagawa 29'

S. Kaneko 14'

N. Sakai 89'

M. Kato 85'

Roni 71'

11/26/2017

J1 League · Round 33IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse41%

×Draw26%

Albirex Niigata34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Shimizu S-pulse

1.42

Albirex Niigata

1.27

Shimizu S-pulse creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 23 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.59

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.15

Albirex Niigata

0.96

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.59

Albirex Niigata

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

66%

Shimizu S-pulse or Albirex Niigata

74%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

59%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

19%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

76%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

41%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

17%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

55%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Albirex Niigata attack 0.96 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

41%

level

26%

Albirex Niigata scores more

34%

Shimizu S-pulse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Kaneko

Shimizu S-pulse · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

S. Obu← K. Ono

14'

S. Kaneko↳ K. Matsubara

23'

Chong Tese

29'

K. Kitagawa↳ S. Kaneko

45'

Hiroshi Futami

60'

N. Sakai← Y. Ogawa

65'

S. Kamata← K. Kitagawa

71'

Roni↳ R. Yamazaki

75'

K. Yano← A. Kawata

76'

Y. Hasegawa← S. Kamata

79'

Yuto Horigome

85'

M. Kato

88'

Tiago Alves← Jong Tae-Se

89'

N. Sakai↳ K. Yano

90'

Kisho Yano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuAlbirex

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots12

2Corners1

16Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target6

6Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

331Total Passes475

221Accurate Passes361

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Albirex Niigata

Albirex Niigata beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-2 in J1 League on November 26, 2017.

Goals: S. Kaneko (14'), K. Kitagawa (29'), Roni (71'), M. Kato (85'), N. Sakai (89').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Albirex Niigata