Albirex Niigata 0–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shimizu S-pulse

T. Inui 16'

9/13/2025

J1 League · Round 29Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Albirex Niigata36%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.33

Albirex Niigata

1.28

Shimizu S-pulse

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.64

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.05

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.64

Shimizu S-pulse

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

62%

Albirex Niigata or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

64%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

16%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

37%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

38%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

48%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.05 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

36%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

38%

Shimizu S-pulse at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

K. Hashimoto

Albirex Niigata · D

7.6

Match Events

16'

31'

39'

40'

44'

57'

K. Matsuzaki← H. Nakahara

57'

S. Yajima← M. Yumiba

64'

Toshiki TakahashiGoal cancelled

65'

65'

76'

83'

84'

S. Takagi← R. Yamahara

84'

K. Chiba← T. Takahashi

86'

K. Hashimoto← Y. Horigome

86'

K. Taniguchi← A. Boudah

90+8'

K. Kitazume← Y. Yoshida

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexShimizu

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots9

1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.07

5Corners6

16Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target3

9Off Target3

6Blocked3

13Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

516Total Passes411

416Accurate Passes313

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3