Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–2 Qingdao Huanghai

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Qingdao Huanghai

S. Sunzu 74'

O. Maritu 35'

R. Alessandrini 86', 39'

8/1/2020

Super League · Round 2Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.50%

×Draw25%

Qingdao Huanghai25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchQingdao Huanghai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.02

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.55

Qingdao Huanghai

1.02

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 22 away

1.06

creates per match

0.73

1.31

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.06

Qingdao Huanghai

0.73

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.31

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

75%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Qingdao Huanghai

75%

Draw or Qingdao Huanghai

50%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

25%

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

79%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

46%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

20%

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

64%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

27%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

67%

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.06 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.55

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

50%

level

25%

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Alessandrini

Qingdao Huanghai · F

8.5

Match Events

18'

Zitong Chen

35'

O. Maritu↳ Zang Yifeng

39'

R. Alessandrini

49'

Wang Jianwen← Wang Hao

62'

Wang Zihao← Chen Zitong

62'

Chen Pu← Zang Yifeng

63'

Zhao Shi← Liu Zhenli

67'

Xiang Gao

74'

S. Sunzu↳ Matheus Nascimento

78'

Zihao Yan

80'

Memetabdulla Ezimet← Gao Xiang

80'

Yaki Yan← Zhou Junchen

81'

Wang Wei← Zhu Jianrong

83'

Deng Yubiao← Chen Pu

83'

Rômulo← Matheus Nascimento

84'

Liu Jiashen

86'

R. Alessandrini↳ Wang Jianwen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShijiazhuangQingdao

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots8

10Corners1

10Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots8

6On Target4

4Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

267Total Passes356

201Accurate Passes287

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2