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Qingdao Huanghai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
9/5/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai32%
×Draw24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.39
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.65

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 68 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
0.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.05
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
56%
Qingdao Huanghai or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
76%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
68%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
15%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
75%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
40%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
16%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
81%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
49%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
43%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
32%
level
24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
44%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Huanghai 0–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 in Super League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.