Qingdao Huanghai 2–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

D. Radonjić 69'

Zhou Junchen 42'

A. Diomande 67'

4/21/2021

Super League · Round 1Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai32%

×Draw24%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.65

Qingdao Huanghai

1.39

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.65

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 68 away

0.71

creates per match

1.25

2.05

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

0.71

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.25

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

56%

Qingdao Huanghai or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

76%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

68%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

15%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

75%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

40%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

16%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

81%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

49%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

43%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

32%

level

24%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

44%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Radonjić

Qingdao Huanghai · F

7.9

Match Events

41'

Zhu Jianrong← D. Popovič

42'

Zhou Junchen↳ Zhu Jianrong

46'

Memetabdulla Ezimet← Ji Xiaoxuan

47'

Peng Li

58'

Zang Yifeng← Lin Chuangyi

65'

Hao Guo

67'

A. Diomande↳ Muriqui

69'

D. Radonjić↳ Memetabdulla Ezimet

74'

Zheng Kaimu← S. Sunzu

74'

A. Senghor← Xie Pengfei

86'

Zhenli Liu

87'

Zang Yifeng

88'

Yang Yu← Liu Jian

89'

Liu Xinyu← A. Diomande

90+4'

Bari Muhammateli← D. Radonjić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoShijiazhuang

Overview

28%Possession72%

10Total Shots18

1Corners3

12Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots18

3On Target6

5Off Target10

2Blocked2

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box5

Passing

28%Possession72%

228Total Passes579

148Accurate Passes508

65%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4