Sheikh Russel 1–1 Rahmatgonj MFS: Result & Stats

Sheikh Russel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rahmatgonj MFS

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 10Bashundhara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sheikh Russel49%

×Draw24%

Rahmatgonj MFS27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheikh RusselExpected goals in this matchRahmatgonj MFS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.21

Sheikh Russel

1.73

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.21

Sheikh Russel creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 75 away

1.65

creates per match

1.24

1.19

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sheikh Russel

1.65

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.24

allows per match

Sheikh Russel

1.19

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Russel ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sheikh Russel or draw

73%

Sheikh Russel or Rahmatgonj MFS

76%

Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS

51%

Winning margin

Sheikh Russel wins by 2+

27%

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sheikh Russel 1+ goals

82%

Sheikh Russel 2+ goals

52%

Sheikh Russel 3+ goals

25%

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals

70%

Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals

34%

Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)

65%

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Russel at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Russel attack 1.65 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sheikh Russel scores more

49%

level

24%

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more

27%

Sheikh Russel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff