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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Russel — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
7/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS35%
×Draw26%
Sheikh Russel39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.31
Sheikh Russel
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Sheikh Russel
1.35

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Sheikh Russel
1.32

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
61%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Sheikh Russel
74%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
65%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
16%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
73%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
38%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
14%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
75%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
40%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
48%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sheikh Russel attack 1.35 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
35%
level
26%
Sheikh Russel scores more
39%

Sheikh Russel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Russel

Rahmatgonj MFS and Sheikh Russel drew 0-0 in Premier League on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.