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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Russel — Federation Cup 2020

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
0 – 1
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russeladvanced
5/2/2023Federation CupFederation Cup · Quarter-finalsComilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS47%
×Draw23%
Sheikh Russel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.78
Sheikh Russel
1.36

Rahmatgonj MFS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Sheikh Russel
1.17

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Sheikh Russel
2.00

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
71%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Sheikh Russel
77%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
53%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
26%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
83%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
53%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
26%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
74%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
39%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
62%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.56 + Sheikh Russel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sheikh Russel attack 1.17 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
47%
level
23%
Sheikh Russel scores more
29%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Russel

Sheikh Russel beat Rahmatgonj MFS 1-0 in Federation Cup on May 2, 2023.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.