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Sheikh Russel vs Fortis — Premier League 2019

Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortis
Fortis
7/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Bashundhara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sheikh Russel39%
×Draw26%
Fortis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheikh Russel
1.42
Fortis
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sheikh Russel
1.65
Fortis
1.46

allows per match

Sheikh Russel
1.19
Fortis
1.19

finishing

Sheikh Russel+0.00on par
Fortis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Russel ↓

Fortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sheikh Russel or draw
65%
Sheikh Russel or Fortis
74%
Draw or Fortis
61%

Winning margin

Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
19%
Fortis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
76%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
41%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
17%
Fortis 1+ goals
73%
Fortis 2+ goals
38%
Fortis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
53%
Fortis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Russel at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Fortis away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Russel attack 1.65 + Fortis defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fortis attack 1.46 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheikh Russel scores more
39%
level
26%
Fortis scores more
35%

Sheikh Russel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheikh Russel vs Fortis

Sheikh Russel beat Fortis 2-0 in Premier League on July 7, 2023.

The match was played at Bashundhara Sports Complex in Dhaka.