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Fortis vs Sheikh Russel — Premier League 2019

Fortis
Fortis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
2/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortis40%
×Draw28%
Sheikh Russel32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortis
1.27
Sheikh Russel
1.10

Fortis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fortis
1.22
Sheikh Russel
1.35

allows per match

Fortis
0.86
Sheikh Russel
1.32

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortis or draw
68%
Fortis or Sheikh Russel
72%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
60%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+
18%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals
72%
Fortis 2+ goals
36%
Fortis 3+ goals
14%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
67%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
30%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)
56%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.22 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sheikh Russel attack 1.35 + Fortis defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortis scores more
40%
level
28%
Sheikh Russel scores more
32%

Fortis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fortis 0–1 Sheikh Russel

Sheikh Russel beat Fortis 1-0 in Premier League on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Rajshahi District Stadium in Rajshahi.