Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortis vs Sheikh Russel — Federation Cup 2020

Fortis
Fortis
FT
3 – 1
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
1/23/2024Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fortis49%
×Draw24%
Sheikh Russel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortis
1.65
Sheikh Russel
1.15

Fortis creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fortis
1.29
Sheikh Russel
1.17

allows per match

Fortis
1.14
Sheikh Russel
2.00

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fortis or draw
73%
Fortis or Sheikh Russel
76%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
51%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+
26%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals
81%
Fortis 2+ goals
49%
Fortis 3+ goals
23%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
68%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
32%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)
65%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.29 + Sheikh Russel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sheikh Russel attack 1.17 + Fortis defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortis scores more
49%
level
24%
Sheikh Russel scores more
27%

Fortis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortis vs Sheikh Russel

Fortis beat Sheikh Russel 3-1 in Federation Cup on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.